The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement.

BACKGROUND: Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy. METHODS: Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries. RESULTS: Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Development and evaluation of a simple treatment eligibility score (HEPSANET) to decentralise hepatitis B care in Africa: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) elimination requires expanding and decentralising HBV care services. However, peripheral health facilities lack access to diagnostic tools to assess eligibility for antiviral therapy. Through the Hepatitis B in Africa Collaborative Network (HEPSANET), we aimed to develop and evaluate a score using tests generally available at lower-level facilities, to simplify the evaluation of antiviral therapy eligibility in people living with HBV. METHODS: We surveyed the availability of clinical and laboratory parameters across different health-care levels in sub-Saharan Africa. We used data from the HEPSANET dataset, the largest cross-sectional dataset of treatment-naive people living with HBV in sub-Saharan Africa, to derive and validate the score. Participants from this dataset were included in the analysis if they were aged 18 years or older and had liver fibrosis stages determined by a liver stiffness measurement or liver histopathology. Participants with co-infections or metabolic disorders were excluded. We allocated participants to the derivation and validation sets by geographical site. In the derivation set, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify the best performing parameters for identifying participants that met the 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria. Regression coefficients were converted into integer points to construct simplified algorithms for different health-care levels. In the validation set, we estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic, sensitivity, and specificity of the simplified algorithm for identifying antiviral therapy eligibility defined by the 2017 EASL criteria. FINDINGS: At 11 sites from eight countries that returned surveys, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and platelet count were generally available at district hospital levels, and hepatitis B e antigen and point-of-care HBV DNA tests were available only at regional and provincial hospital levels or above. Among 2895 participants included from the HEPSANET database (1740 [60·1%] male, 1155 [39·9%] female), 409 (14·1%) met EASL antiviral therapy eligibility criteria. In the derivation set, the optimal district-level hospital score was: ALT (IU/L), less than 40 (0 points), 40-79 (+1), 80 or greater (+2); AST (IU/L), less than 40 (0), 40-79 (+1), 80 or greater (+2); and platelet counts (109/L), less than 100 (+2), 100-149 (+1), 150 or greater (0). When combined with family history and clinical data for decompensated cirrhosis that do not require any biological tests, a cut-off of 2 points or more had a sensitivity and specificity of 82% (95% CI 76-86) and 95% (93-96) to identify treatment-eligible individuals in the derivation set, and 78% (71-85) and 87% (86-89) in the validation set, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Using a score incorporating platelet counts, AST, and ALT, the majority of people living with HBV requiring antiviral therapy can be identified. Our findings suggest that clinical staging can be decentralised down to district hospital level in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: European Association for the Study of the Liver Foundation, John C Martin Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Managing cirrhosis with limited resources: perspectives from sub-Saharan Africa.

Cirrhosis represents the end stage of chronic liver disease. Sub-Saharan Africa, a resource-constrained region, has a high burden of chronic liver disease, with causes including chronic viral hepatitis, excessive alcohol use, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), the risk of which is burgeoning. The development of liver cirrhosis predicts for morbidity and mortality, driven by both liver dysfunction and the consequences of portal hypertension. Compensated cirrhosis portends a better prognosis than decompensated cirrhosis, highlighting the need for the early diagnosis of cirrhosis and its causes. With resource challenges, the diagnosis and management of cirrhosis is demanding, but less costly and less invasive interventions with substantial benefits, ranging from simple blood tests to transient elastography, are feasible in such settings. Simple interventions are also available to manage the complex manifestations of decompensation, such as ß blockers in variceal bleeding prophylaxis, salt restriction and appropriate diuretic use in ascites, and lactulose and generic rifaximin in hepatic encephalopathy. Ultimately, managing the underlying causative factors of liver disease is key in improving prognosis. Management demands expanded policy interventions to increase screening and treatment for hepatitis B and C and reduce alcohol use and the metabolic factors driving MASLD. Furthermore, the skills needed for more specialised interventions, such as transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures and even liver transplantation, warrant planning, increased capacity, and support for regional centres of excellence. Such centres are already being developed in sub-Saharan Africa, demonstrating what can be achieved with dedicated initiatives and individuals.

Global survey of stigma among physicians and patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with fatty liver disease may experience stigma from the disease or comorbidities. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to understand stigma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and healthcare providers. METHODS: Members of the Global NASH Council created two surveys about experiences/attitudes toward NAFLD and related diagnostic terms: a 68-item patient and a 41-item provider survey. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 1,976 patients with NAFLD across 23 countries (51% Middle East/North Africa [MENA], 19% Europe, 17% USA, 8% Southeast Asia, 5% South Asia) and 825 healthcare providers (67% gastroenterologists/hepatologists) across 25 countries (39% MENA, 28% Southeast Asia, 22% USA, 6% South Asia, 3% Europe). Of all patients, 48% ever disclosed having NAFLD/NASH to family/friends; the most commonly used term was "fatty liver" (88% at least sometimes); "metabolic disease" or "MAFLD" were rarely used (never by >84%). Regarding various perceptions of diagnostic terms by patients, there were no substantial differences between "NAFLD", "fatty liver disease (FLD)", "NASH", or "MAFLD". The most popular response was being neither comfortable nor uncomfortable with either term (56%-71%), with slightly greater discomfort with "FLD" among the US and South Asian patients (47-52% uncomfortable). Although 26% of patients reported stigma related to overweight/obesity, only 8% reported a history of stigmatization or discrimination due to NAFLD. Among providers, 38% believed that the term "fatty" was stigmatizing, while 34% believed that "nonalcoholic" was stigmatizing, more commonly in MENA (43%); 42% providers (gastroenterologists/hepatologists 45% vs. 37% other specialties, p = 0.03) believed that the name change to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (or MASLD) might reduce stigma. Regarding the new nomenclature, the percentage of providers reporting "steatotic liver disease" as stigmatizing was low (14%). CONCLUSIONS: The perception of NAFLD stigma varies among patients, providers, geographic locations and sub-specialties. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Over the past decades, efforts have been made to change the nomenclature of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to better align with its underlying pathogenetic pathways and remove any potential stigma associated with the name. Given the paucity of data related to stigma in NAFLD, we undertook this global comprehensive survey to assess stigma in NAFLD among patients and providers from around the world. We found there is a disconnect between physicians and patients related to stigma and related nomenclature. With this knowledge, educational programs can be developed to better target stigma in NAFLD among all stakeholders and to provide a better opportunity for the new nomenclature to address the issues of stigma.

A global action agenda for turning the tide on fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease is a major public health threat due to its very high prevalence and related morbidity and mortality. Focused and dedicated interventions are urgently needed to target disease prevention, treatment, and care. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We developed an aligned, prioritized action agenda for the global fatty liver disease community of practice. Following a Delphi methodology over 2 rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the action priorities using Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a 4-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. Priorities were revised between rounds, and in R2, panelists also ranked the priorities within 6 domains: epidemiology, treatment and care, models of care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. The consensus fatty liver disease action agenda encompasses 29 priorities. In R2, the mean percentage of "agree" responses was 82.4%, with all individual priorities having at least a super-majority of agreement (> 66.7% "agree"). The highest-ranked action priorities included collaboration between liver specialists and primary care doctors on early diagnosis, action to address the needs of people living with multiple morbidities, and the incorporation of fatty liver disease into relevant non-communicable disease strategies and guidance. CONCLUSIONS: This consensus-driven multidisciplinary fatty liver disease action agenda developed by care providers, clinical researchers, and public health and policy experts provides a path to reduce the prevalence of fatty liver disease and improve health outcomes. To implement this agenda, concerted efforts will be needed at the global, regional, and national levels.

The management and outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This systematic review aimed to appraise all population-based studies describing the management and outcomes of HCC in SSA. METHODS: A systematic review based on a search in PubMed, PubMed Central, Scopus, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), AfricaWide and Cochrane up to June 2023 was performed. PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. The study protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (registration no: CRD42022363955). RESULTS: Thirty-nine publications from 15 of 48 SSA countries were identified; 3989 patients were studied. The majority (74%) were male, with median ages ranging from 28 to 54 years. Chronic Hepatitis B infection was a leading aetiology and non-cirrhotic HCC was frequently reported. Curative treatment (liver resection, transplantation and ablation) was offered to 6% of the cohort. Most patients (84%) received only best supportive care (BSC), with few survivors at one year. CONCLUSION: The majority of SSA countries do not have data reporting outcomes for HCC. Most patients receive only BSC, and curative treatment is seldom available in the region. Outcomes are poor compared to high-income countries.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favor of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panelists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and nonstigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

Africa Guidelines for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Buildup Process.

PURPOSE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the fourth most common cancer in Africa, has a dismal overall survival of only 3 months like in sub-Saharan Africa. This is affected by the low gross domestic product and human development index, absence of coherent guidelines, and other factors. METHODS: An open forum for HCC-experienced health care workers from Africa and the rest of the world was held in October 2021. Participants completed a survey to help assess the real-life access to screening, diagnoses, and treatment in the North and Southern Africa (NS), East and West Africa (EW), Central Africa (C), and the rest of the world. RESULTS: Of 461 participants from all relevant subspecialties, 372 were from Africa. Most African participants provided hepatitis B vaccination and treatment for hepatitis B and C. More than half of the participants use serum alpha-fetoprotein and ultrasound for surveillance. Only 20% reported using image-guided diagnostic liver biopsy. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer is the most used staging system (52%). Liver transplant is available for only 28% of NS and 3% EW. C reported a significantly lower availability of resection. Availability of local therapy ranged from 94% in NS to 62% in C. Sorafenib is the most commonly used systemic therapy (66%). Only 12.9% reported access to other medications including immune checkpoint inhibitors. Besides 42% access to regorafenib in NS, second-line treatments were not provided. CONCLUSION: Similarities and differences in the care for patients with HCC in Africa are reported. This reconfirms the major gaps in access and availability especially in C and marginally less so in EW. This is a call for concerted multidisciplinary efforts to achieve and sustain a reduction in incidence and mortality from HCC in Africa.

Enhancing interventions for prevention of mother-to-child- transmission of hepatitis B virus.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a cornerstone of efforts to support progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis. Current guidelines recommend maternal screening, antiviral therapy during the third trimester of high-risk pregnancies, universal and timely HBV birth dose vaccination, and post-exposure prophylaxis with hepatitis B immunoglobulin for selected neonates. However, serological and molecular diagnostic testing, treatment and HBV vaccination are not consistently deployed, particularly in many high endemicity settings, and models predict that global targets for reduction in paediatric incidence will not be met by 2030. In this article, we briefly summarise the evidence for current practice and use this as a basis to discuss areas in which prevention of mother-to-child transmission can potentially be enhanced. By reducing health inequities, enhancing pragmatic use of resources, filling data gaps, developing advocacy and education, and seeking consistent investment from multilateral agencies, significant advances can be made to further reduce vertical transmission events, with wide health, societal and economic benefits.

Informing a target product profile for rapid tests to identify HBV-infected pregnant women with high viral loads: a discrete choice experiment with African healthcare workers.

BACKGROUND: Elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires infant immunoprophylaxis and antiviral prophylaxis for pregnant women with high viral loads. Since real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a gold standard for assessing antiviral eligibility, is neither accessible nor affordable for women living in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detecting alternative HBV markers may be needed. To inform future development of the target product profile (TPP) for RDTs to identify highly viremic women, we used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and elicited preference and trade-off of healthcare workers (HCW) in Africa between the following four attributes of fictional RDTs: price, time-to-result, diagnostic sensitivity, and specificity. METHODS: Through an online questionnaire survey, we asked participants to indicate their preferred test from a set of two RDTs in seven choice tasks with varying levels of the four attributes. We used mixed multinomial logit models to quantify the utility gain or loss generated by each attribute. We attempted to define minimal and optimal criteria for test attributes that can satisfy ≥ 70% and ≥ 90% of HCWs, respectively, as an alternative to RT-PCR. RESULTS: A total of 555 HCWs from 41 African countries participated. Increases in sensitivity and specificity generated significant utility and increases in cost and time-to-result generated significant disutility. The size of the coefficients for the highest attribute levels relative to the reference levels were in the following order: sensitivity (ß = 3.749), cost (ß = -2.550), specificity (ß = 1.134), and time-to-result (ß = -0.284). Doctors cared most about test sensitivity, while public health practitioners cared about cost and midwives about time-to-result. For an RDT with 95% specificity, costing 1 US$, and yielding results in 20 min, the minimally acceptable test sensitivity would be 82.5% and the optimally acceptable sensitivity would be 87.5%. CONCLUSIONS: African HCWs would prefer an RDT with the following order of priority: higher sensitivity, lower cost, higher specificity, and shorter time-to-result. The development and optimization of RDTs that can meet the criteria are urgently needed to scale up the prevention of HBV mother-to-child transmission in LMICs.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favor of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panelists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and nonstigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community. METHODS: Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. RESULTS: The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of 'agree' responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement ('agree' + 'somewhat agree'); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% 'agree'), 13 priorities had <80% 'agree', with greater reliance on 'somewhat agree' to achieve >90% combined agreement. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community's efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favour of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panellists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and non-stigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

Hepatitis B in Africa Collaborative Network: cohort profile and analysis of baseline data.

Approximately 80 million people live with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the WHO Africa Region. The natural history of HBV infection in this population is poorly characterised, and may differ from patterns observed elsewhere due to differences in prevailing genotypes, environmental exposures, co-infections, and host genetics. Existing research is largely drawn from small, single-centre cohorts, with limited follow-up time. The Hepatitis B in Africa Collaborative Network (HEPSANET) was established in 2022 to harmonise the process of ongoing data collection, analysis, and dissemination from 13 collaborating HBV cohorts in eight African countries. Research priorities for the next 5 years were agreed upon through a modified Delphi survey prior to baseline data analysis being conducted. Baseline data on 4,173 participants with chronic HBV mono-infection were collected, of whom 38.3% were women and the median age was 34 years (interquartile range 28-42). In total, 81.3% of cases were identified through testing of asymptomatic individuals. HBeAg-positivity was seen in 9.6% of participants. Follow-up of HEPSANET participants will generate evidence to improve the diagnosis and management of HBV in this region.

Consensus Statement on the definition and classification of metabolic hyperferritinaemia.

Hyperferritinaemia is a common laboratory finding that is often associated with metabolic dysfunction and fatty liver. Metabolic hyperferritinaemia reflects alterations in iron metabolism that facilitate iron accumulation in the body and is associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic and liver diseases. Genetic variants that modulate iron homeostasis and tissue levels of iron are the main determinants of serum levels of ferritin in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, raising the hypothesis that iron accumulation might be implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance and the related organ damage. However, validated criteria for the non-invasive diagnosis of metabolic hyperferritinaemia and the staging of iron overload are still lacking, and there is no clear evidence of a benefit for iron depletion therapy. Here, we provide an overview of the literature on the relationship between hyperferritinaemia and iron accumulation in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, and on the associated clinical outcomes. We propose an updated definition and a provisional staging system for metabolic hyperferritinaemia, which has been agreed on by a multidisciplinary global panel of expert researchers. The goal is to foster studies into the epidemiology, genetics, pathophysiology, clinical relevance and treatment of metabolic hyperferritinaemia, for which we provide suggestions on the main unmet needs, optimal design and clinically relevant outcomes.

Systematic review and individual-patient-data meta-analysis of non-invasive fibrosis markers for chronic hepatitis B in Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, simple biomarkers of liver fibrosis are needed to scale-up hepatitis B treatment. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of 3,548 chronic hepatitis B patients living in eight sub-Saharan African countries to assess the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and two other fibrosis biomarkers using a Bayesian bivariate model. Transient elastography was used as a reference test with liver stiffness measurement thresholds at 7.9 and 12.2kPa indicating significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. At the World Health Organization-recommended cirrhosis threshold (>2.0), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index had sensitivity (95% credible interval) of only 16.5% (12.5-20.5). We identified an optimised aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index rule-in threshold (>0.65) for liver stiffness measurement >12.2kPa with sensitivity and specificity of 56.2% (50.5-62.2) and 90.0% (89.0-91.0), and an optimised rule-out threshold (<0.36) with sensitivity and specificity of 80.6% (76.1-85.1) and 64.3% (62.8-65.8). Here we show that the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index threshold is inappropriately high in sub-Saharan Africa; improved rule-in and rule-out thresholds can optimise treatment recommendations in this setting.

Hepatocellular carcinoma: measures to improve the outlook in sub-Saharan Africa.

Hepatocellular carcinoma is a leading public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa, and it is most prevalent in young adults (median 45 years [IQR 35-57]). Overall, outcomes are poor, with a median survival of 2·5 months after presentation. Major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma are hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus, aflatoxin B1 exposure, and alcohol consumption, with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease slowly emerging as a risk factor over the past few years. Crucially, these risk factors are preventable and manageable with effective implementation of the HBV birth-dose vaccination, treatment of chronic viral hepatitis, provision of harm reduction services, and by decreasing aflatoxin B1 exposure and harmful alcohol consumption. Primary prevention is central to the management of hepatocellular carcinoma, especially in poorly resourced environments. Effective screening and surveillance programmes with recall policies need to be implemented, because detection and curative management of hepatocellular carcinoma is possible if it is detected at an early stage, even in countries with minimal resources, with appropriate upskilling of medical personnel. The establishment of centres of excellence with advanced diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities within countries should improve hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes and assist in driving the implementation of much needed systematic data systems focused on hepatocellular carcinoma to establish the accurate burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Such data would support the public health importance of hepatocellular carcinoma and provide a strong basis for advocacy, programme development, resource allocation, and monitoring of progress in reducing mortality.

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges and solutions.

Most patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma reside in resource-poor countries, a category that includes most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Age-standardised incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in western, central, eastern, and southern Africa is 6·53 per 100 000 inhabitants to 11·1 per 100 000 inhabitants. In high-income countries, around 40% of patients are diagnosed at an early stage, in which interventions with curative intent or palliative interventions are possible. By contrast, 95% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa present with advanced or terminal disease. In high-income countries, targets of 30-40% that have been set for intervention with curative intent are regularly met, with expected 5-year overall survival rates in the region of 70%. These outcomes are in sharp contrast with the very small proportion of patients in sub-Saharan Africa who are treated with curative intent. Primary prevention through the eradication and reduction of risk factors is still suboptimal because of logistical challenges. The challenges facing primary prevention, in combination with difficult-to-manage historic and emerging risk factors, such as ethanol overconsumption and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease, mandates secondary prevention for populations at risk through screening and surveillance. Although the increased treatment needs yielded by screening and surveillance in high-income countries are manageable by the incremental expansion of existing interventional resources, the lack of resources in sub-Saharan Africa will undermine the possible benefits of secondary prevention. An estimate of the projected effect of the introduction and expansion of screening and surveillance, resulting in stage migration and possibilities for active interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma, would facilitate optimal planning and development of resources.